# Bayesian re-analysis of the radial velocities of Gliese 581. Evidence in favour of only four planetary companions

@article{Tuomi2011BayesianRO, title={Bayesian re-analysis of the radial velocities of Gliese 581. Evidence in favour of only four planetary companions}, author={Mikko Tuomi}, journal={Astronomy and Astrophysics}, year={2011}, volume={528} }

Aims. The Gliese 581 planetary system has received attention because it has been proposed to host a low-mass planet in its habitable zone. We re-analyse the radial velocity measurements reported to contain six planetary signals to see whether these conclusions remain valid when the analyses are made using Bayesian tools instead of the common periodogram analyses. Methods. We analyse the combined radial velocity data set obtained using the HARPS and HIRES spectrographs using posterior sampling… Expand

#### 53 Citations

Evidence for nine planets in the HD 10180 system

- Physics
- 2012

Aims. We re-analyse the HARPS radial velocities of HD10180 and calculate the probabilities of models with differing numbers of periodic signals in the data. We test the significance of the seven… Expand

Application of Bayesian model inadequacy criterion for multiple data sets to radial velocity models of exoplanet systems

- Physics, Mathematics
- 2011

We present a simple mathematical criterion for determining whether a given statistical model does not describe several independent sets of measurements, or data modes, adequately. We derive this… Expand

GJ 581 update: Additional evidence for a Super-Earth in the habitable zone

- Physics
- 2012

ties We present an analysis of the significantly expanded HARPS 2011 radial velocity data set for GJ 581 that was presented by Forveille et al. (2011). Our analysis reaches substantially different… Expand

Habitable-zone super-Earth candidate in a six-planet system around the K2.5V star HD 40307

- Physics
- 2013

Context. The K2.5 dwarf HD 40307 has been reported to host three super-Earths. The system lacks massive planets and is therefore a potential candidate for having additional low-mass planetary… Expand

Signals embedded in the radial velocity noise - Periodic variations in the τ Ceti velocities

- Physics
- 2013

Context. The abilities of radial velocity exoplanet surveys to detect the lowest-mass extra-solar planets are currently limited by a combination of instrument precision, lack of data, and 'jitter'.… Expand

An investigation into the radial velocity variability of GJ 581: On the significance of GJ 581g

- Physics
- 2013

We investigate the radial velocity variation of GJ 581 based on measurements from the HARPS and Keck HIRES spectrographs. A Fourier pre-whitening procedure is able to extract four planetary signals… Expand

A Consistent Orbital Stability Analysis for the GJ 581 System

- Physics
- 2014

We apply a combination of N-body modeling techniques and automated data fitting with Monte Carlo Markov Chain uncertainty analysis of Keplerian orbital models to radial velocity data to determine… Expand

Bayesian Methods for Analysis and Adaptive Scheduling of Exoplanet Observations

- Mathematics, Physics
- 2012

Abstract We describe work in progress by a collaboration of astronomers and statisticians developing a suite of Bayesian data analysis tools for extrasolar planet (exoplanet) detection, planetary… Expand

Up to four planets around the M dwarf GJ 163. Sensitivity of Bayesian planet detection criteria to prior choice

- Physics
- 2013

Exoplanet Doppler surveys are currently the most efficient means to detect low-mass companions to nearby stars. Among these stars, the light M dwarfs provide the highest sensitivity to detect… Expand

Analysis of combined radial velocities and activity of BD+20 1790: evidence supporting the existence of a planetary companion

- Physics
- 2015

Context. In a previous paper we reported a planetary companion to the young and very active K5Ve star BD+20 1790. We found that this star has a high level of stellar activity (log R'_HK = -3.7) that… Expand

#### References

SHOWING 1-10 OF 20 REFERENCES

A Bayesian periodogram finds evidence for three planets in HD 11964

- Physics
- 2007

A Bayesian multiplanet Kepler periodogram has been developed for the analysis of precision radial velocity data. The periodogram employs a parallel tempering Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm. The… Expand

Improving the Efficiency of Markov Chain Monte Carlo for Analyzing the Orbits of Extrasolar Planets

- Physics
- 2005

Precise radial velocity measurements have led to the discovery of ~170 extrasolar planetary systems. Understanding the uncertainties in the orbital solutions will become increasingly important as the… Expand

A Bayesian Kepler periodogram detects a second planet in HD 208487

- Physics
- 2006

An automatic Bayesian Kepler periodogram has been developed for identifying and characterizing multiple planetary orbits in precision radial velocity data. The periodogram is powered by a parallel… Expand

The Lick-Carnegie Exoplanet Survey: A 3.1 M ⊕ Planet in the Habitable Zone of the Nearby M3V Star Gliese 581

- Physics
- 2010

We present 11 years of HIRES precision radial velocities (RVs) of the nearby M3V star Gliese 581, combining our data set of 122 precision RVs with an existing published 4.3-year set of 119 HARPS… Expand

The HARPS search for southern extra-solar planets - VI. A Neptune-mass planet around the nearby M dwarf Gl 581

- Physics
- 2005

We report the discovery of a Neptune-mass planet around Gl 581 (M3V, M = 0.31 ), based on precise Doppler measurements with the HARPS spectrograph at La Silla Observatory. The radial velocities… Expand

The HARPS search for southern extra-solar planets: XVIII. An Earth-mass planet in the GJ 581 planetary system

- Physics
- 2009

The GJ 581 planetary system was already known to harbour three planets, including two presumably rocky planets which straddle its habitable zone. We report here the detection of an additional planet… Expand

Bayesian analysis of the radial velocities of HD 11506 reveals another planetary companion

- Physics
- 2009

M. Tuomi and S. Kotirana, 'Bayesian analysis of the radial velocities of HD 11506 reveals another planetary companion', Astronomy & Astrophysics, Vol. 496 (2), L13-L16, first published online 24… Expand

The HARPS search for southern extra-solar planets. XI. Super-Earths (5 and 8 M{⊕}) in a 3-planet system

- Physics
- 2007

This Letter reports on the detection of two super-Earth planets in the Gl 581 system, which is already known to harbour a hot Neptune. One of the planets has a mass of 5 M⊕ and resides at the “warm”… Expand

Monte Carlo Sampling Methods Using Markov Chains and Their Applications

- Mathematics
- 1970

SUMMARY A generalization of the sampling method introduced by Metropolis et al. (1953) is presented along with an exposition of the relevant theory, techniques of application and methods and… Expand

Marginal Likelihood From the Metropolis–Hastings Output

- Mathematics
- 2001

This article provides a framework for estimating the marginal likelihood for the purpose of Bayesian model comparisons. The approach extends and completes the method presented in Chib (1995) by… Expand